Alternative
broadband wirelesstechnologies are being forced to compete in the
mobility market and coulddisrupt the evolution of 3G networks if potential
showstoppers are
addressed, according to a new report, The Role and Impact of WiMAX
and Proprietary BWA Technologies published by Analysys Research, the
global advisers on telecoms, IT and media (http://research.analysys.com).
The report
shows that emerging broadband wireless technologies could blur the
boundaries between cellular and fixed broadband wireless solutions.
The rapid growth in DSL and cable availability in developed markets
means that the emerging wireless technologies must offer mobility
to avoid being marginalised as niche fixed broadband wireless solutions.
"Offering fixed broadband Internet access using wireless technologies
is a tough business case, with wafer-thin margins," according
to Dr Mark Heath, co-author of thenew report. "The breakthrough
opportunity will only come by learning from the success of cellular,
extracting significant price premiums for mobility and offering a
more profitable service mix."
Broadband wireless systems from Flarion, IPWireless and ArrayComm,
which all support wide-area mobility, are already deployed in a variety
of commercial and trial networks around the world. Using an assortment
of proprietary and standards-based technologies, such as OFDM and
W-CDMA TDD, they claim advantages over 3G, including faster throughput,
lower cost and lowerlatency. They are to be joined by WiMAX (IEEE
802.16e) and MobileFi (IEEE 802.20), both of which are aiming to combine
the benefits of mobility, standardisation and multivendor support,
albeit with commercial launches unlikely prior to 2007.
"The battle is now on between the vendors to secure the necessary
global economies of scale to be a serious alternative to mainstream
3G technologies," according to Mark Heath. "Success will
demand extensive deployment by mobile operators, who are generally
accepted to be the key customer targets. They have valuable assets
such as base-station sites, large existing customer bases and strong
marketing capabilities that will be crucial to achieving commercial
success." He adds, "They could decide to deploy alternative
technologies alongside, or instead of, 3G as a means of offering differentiated
services and driving new revenues."
While mobile operators represent a tantalising opportunity for vendors
of these emerging technologies, there is still much to do to persuade
mobile operators to invest in these rather than take up the options
they have for 3G standard enhancements such as HSDPA. A number of
critical points need to be addressed, such as identification of a
compelling mix of service propositions, provision of clear evidence
of performance and cost gains and blueprints for integration with
existing base stations and confirmation of the availability of necessary
spectrum. These challenges are underlined by the results of initial
service deployments. "Early trials generally show a poor return
compared to mainstream mobile operator voice and messaging services,"
says co-author Dr Alastair Brydon. "Either services appear expensive
to customers, which will mean adoption will remain low, or they are
pitched in direct competition with fixed broadband services, when
they deliver only around one percent of the revenue per Mbyte of traditional
cellular services."
"Mobile operators demand rigorous evidence of system performance
in a loaded network," says Brydon. "They also need to understand
the implications and costs of integration with their existing networks,
particularly given that the new technologies are not currently supported
by mainstream cellular vendors such as Nokia, Ericsson and Motorola."
Brydon points out that spectrum will also be an important consideration.
"With the exception of IPWireless's W-CDMA TDD technology, none
of these systems has a dedicated spectrum allocation. Mobile operators
may need to acquire new spectrum or seek relaxation of the rules surrounding
their existing spectrum allocations something they don't need
to do with HSDPA."
The report ranks each broadband wireless technology against six key
mobile operator requirements. While each has its own specific strengths
and weaknesses, no single technology currently comes close to meeting
all needs, making HSDPA appear a safer deployment option, at least
in the short-term.
Apart from mobile operators, the wildcards in the future of alternative
broadband wireless technologies will be the various other types of
player that are not currently active in the mobility market. "Fixed
operators, ISPs, WLAN hotspot providers and major consumer and business-to-business
brands could deploy the technologies to offer a mix of voice and data
services in direct competition with mobile operators," says Mark
Heath. "But they are going to need a really strong business case
and wireless voice over IP will be critical to boosting revenues and
profitability." He warns,
however, that in the absence of mass deployment by mobile operators
and the reductions in equipment prices resulting from economies of
scale, some or all of these new BWA technologies may be relegated
to become niche last-mile access solutions.
Time may not be on the side of proprietary technologies, potentially
leaving
forthcoming IEEE 802.16 and 802.20 standards to resolve the outstanding
issues. IEEE 802.16, in particular, benefits from strong backing from
the
WiMAX Forum and Intel, although much about the standard, particularly
its
mobile variant IEEE 802.16e, is still undefined. "The WiMAX Forum
needs to move from building awareness to clarifying the capability
and role of the
technology," says Alastair Brydon.
The Role and Impact of WiMAX and Proprietary BWA Technologies presents
the real facts of what these technologies will (and will not) do,
including assessments of early commercial launches and market trials.
The report identifies potential showstoppers for each of the new technologies
and
considers the most likely evolution paths for Flarion, IPWireless,
ArrayComm and WiMAX.
